Advanced Optics Probably Aren't As Good As You Think

I had an interesting conversation yesterday on the X-Wing Second Edition Discord that I think is worth pulling out and sharing as a blog entry.  We started off talking about a First Order squad and then wombled our way across a few topics like the maths behind Heroic and Advanced Optics and finished on the RZ2 A-Wing.

Advanced Optics in particular is a topic that I think is worth talking about because I suspect it's an upgrade card that players don't really fully understand the maths of.  As a result I think it's consistently overestimated and put into squads that it shouldn't really belong in (aka, most things that aren't RZ2 A-Wings).  I'd even argue that in the current metagame it shouldn't really be a no-brainer for the RZ2 A-Wings, which is tantamount to sacrilege... but we'll get there.

I'm not going to repeat the conversation verbatim but paraphrase stuff a bit and condense multiple people together to make it easier to read.  Apologies to the people who were involved in the conversation if you feel I misrepresent what you said, it wasn't my intention!

Let's drop in where the conversation started, which is when somebody suggested this First Order squad only to have a couple of people (not just me) recommend dropping the Advanced Optics...

/==/_BEGIN TRANSMISSION_/==/

Galaxies?

• Quickdraw (TIE/sf) - Special Forces Gunner, Fire Control System
• First Order Provocateur (TIE/ba)
• First Order Provocateur (TIE/ba)  
• Epsilon Squadron Cadet (TIE/fo) - Advanced Optics
• Epsilon Squadron Cadet (TIE/fo) - Advanced Optics
  (198) 

Would this be good for Galaxies?  It's going to be a tough thing to joust!

I'd take the Advanced Optics off, they're pretty poor on Cadets.   Optics adds very little to their offense and they spend too long k-turning or s-looping so aren't always Focused. 

But everyone agrees the problem with Cadets is their anaemic offense, and people shouldn't be shooting at them so they'd still have Focus.  This is the best upgrade to help them get better offensive value. 

You don't get 4pts worth of value from it.  

How else are you going to make their offense more reliable?

I'd probably play with Rivas, or TN-3465.  You have to attack with Advanced Optics about SIX times before it adds up to an extra damage being dealt.  Are these Epsilons going to attack six times with Focus?

Probably not.  Ok, I'll take the Optics off!

I think people really overrate Advanced Optics based on what it does on RZ2 A-Wings when they have multiple arcs, linked focus actions and another dice mod that catches double blanks (Heroic).  And even on RZ2 A-Wings it's still only arguably worthwhile.  These days Optics are only in the 5 A-Wings squad because there's nothing better to spend the points on.

It's definitely worthwhile on A-Wings.  Heroic and Optics is really the core of that squad and you're relying on how much you're certain of rolling 2 hits wherever you put the ships on the table.  I wouldn't trade 20pts of Advanced Optics for a Fireball or to just run six Heroic A-Wings without Optics.

I know that's the perception but I think if you tracked how often those 20pts turned into actual damage being dealt it wouldn't be a spectacular return on your investment.  Advanced Optics was good in the Rebel Beef meta of 1 Agility ships but it's lost a massive chunk of it's effectiveness now there's loads of 3 Agility around.

It's not just about the maths.  We had the same conversations when Heroic was first released and it supposedly not being worth playing at all.

Heroic is different, it's not just about the maths but Optics is.  Heroic is a skill-rewarding upgrade.

What?

Good players win games where their dice don't produce bad variance results.  Any variance close to average is probably a game win for a good player.  Heroic is therefore a safety net that tosses the one thing that means they lose games and turns it into the thing that means they probably do win games.  But for bad players Heroic takes the results that mean they're going to lose games and turns it into results that probably means they're going to lose anyway.

Mathematically: Heroic does nearly nothing.  But to a good player that nearly nothing is the one thing they need it to do because all other eventualities are covered by their skill.

That's an interesting way to look at it!  But why doesn't it apply to Advanced Optics too?

Well Optics costs 4x as much.  And I think the game-losing variance you need Heroic for more often happens on defense than offense.  Heroic covers both and all the time, Optics costs more and only covers offensive variance when you've a focus to spend.

The decisive factor for Optics value is really the expected agility of opposing ships because vs low agility the incremental extra hits you get from optics are likely to turn into extra damage cards, but vs high agility there's a reasonable chance the opponent will evade anyway.  Optics on A-Wings are a great addition when the meta is right for A-Wings and their 2 dice guns, but when A-Wings are weaker in the meta the Optics are weaker too and you're not really solving the problem you're facing by adding Optics.

But it's really the same thing - Optics is there to kill the very variance that makes you lose as it's giving you close to max hits every time.

But it costs TWENTY points for a squad, and we're back around to that it's good in that squad mainly because there's nothing better available.  People locked onto Optics' value when it made a big splash in a rebel beef sort of meta when turning 1 hit into 2 hits was highly likely to be +1 damage dealt.  It's value has dropped a lot since then but I think people still have it pegged at where it was and then they make mistakes like assuming the RZ2 value from a beef meta transfers onto another ship in another meta (like putting it on TIE/fo to deal with an Agility 3 Nantex meta).  Optics hasn't changed at all, but everything around it changed and it got a lot worse.

*** the sound of me cranking up an Excel spreadsheet ***

This chart shows how Advanced Optics value tails off quickly when the defender starts rolling lots of green dice.

Does that chart include Heroic?  If we're talking A-Wings then I think it's about Heroic and Advanced Optics working together

No, but I can add it.  I think you'll be surprised how little difference it makes.

*** more Excel noises ***

Ok... Heroic actually makes Advanced Optics worse!  Because Heroic is already catching the double blank rolls that Optics can turn into 1 Hit it's actually running interference on Advanced Optics rather than boosting it.

What's that line about '+2 damage' mean?

That's how many attacks you'll need to make with Advanced Optics for it to turn into 2 extra damage dealt.  I'm assuming that if you're investing 4pts in Optics you want a good chance to return 2 incremental damage in a game to make it worthwhile.  You could halve the number of attacks if you decide you only want +1 damage for your investment, though.

Got it.

And all those stats are assuming that the green dice don't have a Focus behind them.  If the defender has Focus then it gets worse again for Advanced Optics as it's even more likely that the extra hit you go was evaded anyway.

So to come back around to the start... I think a lot of the strength of Advanced Optics, even in their best use case of RZ2 A-Wings, is as much perception as it is reality.  In their best use case vs low agility targets, like in the beef meta, you probably got good value out of Optics over a game.  But in the current meta you're probably throwing points away by taking Optics and you're DEFINITELY throwing points away if it's going onto a ship that has a harder time taking focused shots than an RZ2 (like a TIE/fo, or even the TIE/sf as it doesn't have linked focus-reposition).

Ok.  I think I can start to agree with this.  I still think the consistency of getting 2 hits is a big factor in helping you plan your turn knowing what the dice will do, though.

Maybe.  Right now I think the metagame isn't right for 5 A-Wings - wild horses couldn't make me fly that list into all those efficient Agility 3 swarms.  But if I was flying it I'd probably be giving serious thought to dropping Advanced Optics to play Proton Rockets, they at least answer the problem that the list is facing when it plays against lots of Agility.  

A few Initiative 5 A-Wings with Proton Rockets are probably not what the Nantex want to be playing against!

/==/_END TRANSMISSION_/==/

So there you go.  Advanced Optics probably aren't as good as you think.  I think.