tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post621693736046593024..comments2018-05-22T11:27:23.534-07:00Comments on Stay On The Leader: "Never Tell Me The Odds" - X-Wing Dice for BeginnersDavid Sutcliffenoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-5120684718816000002017-05-09T14:40:44.099-07:002017-05-09T14:40:44.099-07:00"the first 0.35 + the 2nd 0.35 equals.... 0.7..."the first 0.35 + the 2nd 0.35 equals.... 0.7"<br /><br />This is untrue. Imagine you would attack three times. Is the chance of dealing damage in the three attacks 1.05 (more than 100 % certain)? Of course not, as it is (and only considering attack dice here) perfectly possible to roll 0 hits in 6 dice. <br /><br />The concept becomes most clear with 2 dice with 0.5 chance each of a hit, which is perfectly compareable to a situation with two attacks with a 0.5 chance to hit). Now the question is - how likely are you to roll at least one hit in this situation. <br /><br />Rolling the 2 dice have 4 possible outcomes. hit+hit, miss+hit, hit+miss, miss+miss. All results are equally likely (although the difference between hit-miss and miss+hit is irrelevant to this example), Giving you a 0,75 percent chance of at least 1 hit on two dice. (0,5 for 1 hit and 0,25 for 2 hits).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17580671045974660118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-21653342839849580202016-02-25T08:43:26.459-08:002016-02-25T08:43:26.459-08:00Can you explain this a little more: "When you...Can you explain this a little more: "When you roll a red dice against a green dice you've got about a 25% chance of dealing damage."Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15287172373069698997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-68213214863207512222016-02-17T07:15:35.286-08:002016-02-17T07:15:35.286-08:00It looks to me as if, in the "Implications of...It looks to me as if, in the "Implications of Overload Dice" section, the author is assuming the attacker and defender have focus for every attack.Robert M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08894019036517722829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-84301492022965978272016-02-16T19:49:15.668-08:002016-02-16T19:49:15.668-08:00lets step through it real slow. lets pretend its d...lets step through it real slow. lets pretend its different turns instead of the same turn with two different ships.<br /><br />The first turn you have an expected damage of 0.35. next turn, regardless of whether you shot before, or hit before, or anything... you have another shot.... that has an expected damage of 0.35. the first 0.35 + the 2nd 0.35 equals.... 0.7<br /><br /><br />It's most definitely not 4v6 as if you score 3 evades on the first strike they don't carry over to the 2nd strike. you have to treat it as two separate unkownshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383725120863716307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-54432256710803152552016-02-16T15:36:30.844-08:002016-02-16T15:36:30.844-08:002 v 3 = 0.35 TIMES TWO ATTACKS isn't how it w...2 v 3 = 0.35 TIMES TWO ATTACKS isn't how it works.<br /><br />2 v 3 (x2) = 4 v 6 = 0.48<br />If your attacking twice, you defender is defending twice, and thus increases his chances to defend.<br /><br />That is why "3 v 3 = 0.67" from the interceptor is betterUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04809746970861393362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-39001505714168474332016-02-16T14:13:25.642-08:002016-02-16T14:13:25.642-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Chris Nielsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18325184333479686426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125465266690212526.post-26458904151967587262016-02-16T13:53:05.162-08:002016-02-16T13:53:05.162-08:00This isn't anywhere close to accurate. Look a...This isn't anywhere close to accurate. Look at your math wing chart. expected damage 3 reds vs 3 greens is correct at 0.67 (which you gracefully round up to 0.7 to help your point).<br /><br />But 2 attacks from 2 reds vs 3 greens is the expected damage of 2 reds vs 3 greens (0.35) TIMES TWO ATTACKS.<br /><br />Two ties out dps an interceptor as well as having double the hull.<br /><br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15383725120863716307noreply@blogger.com